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AI could disrupt insurance distribution and underwriting, McKinsey says
McKinsey estimates global gross written premiums reached about $8.3 trillion in 2025, while profits before tax rose to roughly $580 billion over the same period.
Artificial intelligence could remake how insurers distribute policies, underwrite risk, and improve productivity, McKinsey & Company said, arguing that AI is different from prior waves of digitization that left the industry’s economics largely unchanged. McKinsey pointed to a long stretch of steady premium growth with limited profitability gains. It estimates global gross written premiums expanded roughly 4.9% annually since 2005, reaching about $8.3 trillion in 2025, while profits before tax grew about 4.3% to approximately $580 billion.
The analysis highlights persistent structural issues across lines. McKinsey said gross written premiums as a share of GDP have stayed flat across life, health, and property & casualty even as risk has intensified, with personal lines at 1.0% of global GDP in 2023, down from 1.2% in 2019.
On distribution, McKinsey said the model has barely shifted: about 85% of U.S. property & casualty premiums and 95% of life insurance premiums are distributed through agents, brokers, and managing general agents. The firm also cited that nearly half of North American customers already use AI in personal insurance-buying journeys, raising the prospect that agentic AI tools could steer customers toward recommendations and switches rather than traditional “front door” channels.