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Bitcoin hovers below $69,000 ahead of Fed decision, ETF inflows steady
On-chain and ETF data suggest the rebound is concentrated among large holders, while expectations for a July rate increase sit around 33.7% as of CME pricing.
Bitcoin was trading near $65,978, below a $69,000 threshold Glassnode characterizes as the average cost basis for short-term holders, with the Fed's July 28 to 29 meeting seen as the key catalyst for whether that gap can be closed, according to CryptoSlate.
CryptoSlate links the backdrop to recent macro moves, including June payrolls rising by 57,000 and unemployment holding at 4.2%, while revisions cut April and May payrolls by a combined 74,000. The report also points to core CPI holding flat month over month and slowing to 2.6% annually, alongside an oil backdrop, with Brent futures settling around $94 and reaching an intraday high of $95.47.
CryptoSlate cites changes in market positioning and flows, saying short positions have closed, downside hedging has collapsed, and exchange inflows have faded to multi-week lows. The article adds that spot Bitcoin ETFs posted six straight positive sessions from July 14 through July 21, adding about $930.2 million, and reversing a $424.7 million outflow from July 13.
On-chain data highlighted by CryptoSlate show wallets holding between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC, a cohort typical of funds and large trading desks, driving much of the recent accumulation. The report says mid-sized holders are distributing again, the market gauge still reads risk-off, and that bond yields near 4.67% on the 10-year and about 5% on the 30-year period keep the discount rate on risk assets elevated beneath the $69,000 area.
Latest closeBrent $94.43 ▲3.8%|Bitcoin $65,497.42 ▼0.9%