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Brent breaks above $100 as Middle East tensions raise supply risks

ING analysts warn that if Brent approaches $120 per barrel, market pressure could intensify on the US administration to push for de escalation.

Reported · Written up by our desk · Energy

Brent crude has broken above $100 per barrel for the first time since May as escalating Middle East tensions and related supply risks keep prices supported, according to ING analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey.

ING said threats include disruption to oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea, citing Houthi attacks on Saudi vessels that could widen the conflict.

The analysts also pointed to reduced flows, saying oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz have effectively dried up, and they highlighted Red Sea export disruptions from Saudi operations. In June, they estimated Saudi crude exports from Yanbu averaged roughly 4.6 million barrels per day.

ING further noted disruption risks tied to Kazakhstan exports, including problems at the CPC terminal in Russia. Export volumes from that terminal in recent months have exceeded 1.7 million barrels per day, and without de escalation the analysts expect oil prices to keep moving higher, with $120 per barrel seen as a potential trigger for US political pressure.

Latest closeWTI crude $92.23 ▲6.2%|Brent $100.54 ▲6.9%

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