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Brent climbs back to $100 as supply risks widen across shipping routes
Brent jumped nearly 12% on the week to $100 for the first time since May, while markets watch key technical levels in oil, Treasury yields, the dollar, and equities for signs of broader repricing.
Global markets ended last week with caution as Brent crude returned to $100 for the first time since May, gaining almost 12% on the week and underscoring growing concerns about more widespread disruptions to global oil supplies, according to Action Forex.
The source said the risk backdrop has shifted beyond the original US-Iran conflict in February, with tensions spreading to two additional shipping routes. In the Red Sea, Houthi attacks on Saudi tankers threaten an alternative export path that had reduced reliance on the Strait of Hormuz, while in the Black Sea, attacks tied to the Russia-Ukraine conflict have forced the Caspian Pipeline Consortium to suspend crude loadings, disrupting most of Kazakhstan’s oil exports.
Action Forex also pointed to thinner buffers, saying global oil inventories have been substantially depleted in recent months, leaving the market less able to absorb supply interruptions. With threats occurring simultaneously across three geographically distinct corridors, the article said the risk rises that temporary disruptions could evolve into a more sustained supply shock.
Rather than headlines, the next move will be judged by whether five market indicators break the levels that would signal a broader repricing of inflation, monetary policy, and global growth. Brent remains central in the framework because it reflects physical supply and demand conditions, while Treasury yields, central bank expectations, the dollar, and equities respond to changes in inflation and growth expectations.
Latest closeWTI crude $90.47 ▼1.9%|Brent $98.38 ▼2.3%