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Argentina wheat output estimate revised up for 2026-27 marketing year
The USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service lifted its production forecast to 21.6 million tonnes and also raised expected exports to 15.5 million tonnes.
Argentina’s wheat crop outlook for the 2026-27 marketing year has been revised higher by the US Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service, even as the crop is still expected to fall versus last year’s record level.
The FAS increased its production estimate to 21.6 million tonnes, a 600,000-tonne upgrade from its April forecast. It attributed the change to more planting, citing additional 200,000 hectares and a harvested area of 6.6 million hectares, with the FAS saying favorable weather and lower input prices encouraged late-season expansion.
Despite the higher revision, production is still forecast 6.3 million tonnes lower than 2025-26, which the FAS linked to exceptional yields last year. The agency also warned that protein levels were generally lower than normal, limiting suitability for markets that require higher-protein milling wheat.
On trade, Argentine wheat exports for the 2026-27 marketing year were revised up to 15.5 million tonnes, and exports for 2025-26 are projected at 18.5 million tonnes, still an all-time high but below the prior forecast. The FAS said Brazil is expected to import about 4 to 4.5 million tonnes, somewhat under typical purchases, and weaker demand in Eastern African markets tied to protein preferences may reduce export opportunities.
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