Home›Crypto›Market Structure›Fed decision and Warsh remarks could swing bitcoin pri…

Fed decision and Warsh remarks could swing bitcoin price expectations

CoinDesk highlights that CME fed funds futures still price about a 35% chance of a rate increase ahead of the 2:00 p.m. ET decision, with bond yields already moving higher.

Reported · Written up by our desk · Market Structure

The Federal Reserve is set to announce its rate decision at 2:00 p.m. ET, followed by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET, and the move is expected to shape near-term bitcoin price expectations. CoinDesk points to unusual uncertainty into the meeting, noting that markets still assign roughly a 35% probability to a rate increase in CME fed funds futures, a level the outlet says is rare so close to the decision. The newsletter also notes that traders typically put more weight on FOMC meetings that include updated economic projections and a dot plot, and that today’s gathering lacks both. The newsletter further links potential rate-path signaling to recent bond-market moves, saying both the 10-year and two-year Treasury yields have broken above key trendlines after a shallow pullback since 2023. It adds that if the Fed raises rates or turns more hawkish, the already rising yields could increase pressure on risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. Finally, CoinDesk flags a separate macro ingredient, oil prices, saying WTI crude has climbed nearly 20% this month while U.S. and Iran peace talks remain deadlocked. The outlet argues renewed oil-driven inflation concerns could limit the Fed’s ability to take a dovish tone, while bitcoin could instead benefit if the Fed downplays inflation fears despite the oil resurgence.

Latest closeWTI crude $81.23 ▼1.7%|Bitcoin $64,269.09 ▲0.6%

More like this

Sources