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Northern Plains spring wheat tour finds generally resilient crop amid volatility
September wheat futures for three wheat classes were up an average 14% from June 30 lows as global supply risks rose.
Scouts on the Wheat Quality Council’s 2026 Hard Spring and Durum Wheat Quality Tour reported generally good yield potential and manageable disease pressure in the Northern Plains, despite weather stress and heightened global uncertainty, according to World Grain. The tour, held July 20 to 23 near Langdon, North Dakota, and spanning across the state, took place as market conditions shifted sharply. Escalating military activity in the Black Sea region has raised concerns about grain exports from Russia and Ukraine, pushing wheat futures to three-year highs. World Grain reports that attacks on Russian ports and vessels in the Sea of Azov led Russia to close the Kerch Strait, a key export corridor through which nearly one-third of Russia’s wheat exports typically move. As of July 15, September wheat futures across all three wheat classes had risen an average of 14% from contract lows set June 30. The report also points to tighter wheat supply outlooks driving attention to the US spring wheat crop. The USDA forecast 2026 winter wheat production at 1.03 billion bushels, down 27% from 2025, and projected 2026-27 global wheat ending stocks at 272.84 million tonnes, down 0.9% from June and 2.2% below the 2025-26 projected carryout.
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