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US long-grain rice futures jump 36% on tighter supply outlook
September CME rough rice futures hit contract highs July 22, after USDA data showed long-grain acres were planted about 29% lower in 2026.
World Grain reports the US rice market has rallied, even as the USDA rates the 2026 crop in good-to-excellent condition and supply-and-demand looks tighter than expected. The September CME rough rice future rose to contract highs on July 22 and has gained 36% since the start of 2026, with much of the strength building during the growing season.
The outlet says the key driver is the size of the crop, not quality. About 29% fewer US acres were planted to long-grain rice this year, which the report notes is the most consumed rice grain in the United States.
World Grain highlights the scale of the acreage drop in Arkansas, the top-producing long-grain state, where 851,000 acres were planted in 2026, down 597,000 acres, or 41%, from 1.448 million acres in 2025. It also calls the resulting area planted the lowest for this variety in about 50 years.
The article attributes the shift in acreage to high-priced inputs and competition from lower-priced foreign rice, plus competition from value-added domestic crops such as soybeans. It also notes USDA projections for global demand, with 2026-27 global rice consumption forecast at a record 541.4 million tonnes, up from 538 million tonnes forecast for 2025-26.
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