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Goldman lifts China AI model revenue forecast to $13b
The bank raised its year-end annualised recurring revenue estimate by 30.0% to US$13.0 billion, citing price cuts, technical breakthroughs, and faster corporate adoption.
Goldman Sachs has increased its forecast for revenue in mainland China’s AI model market, lifting its year-end annualised recurring revenue projection by 30.0% to US$13.0 billion, according to a research note highlighted by SCMP Economy.
The bank said the upgrade is tied to aggressive price cuts, technical breakthroughs, and accelerating corporate adoption. It also boosted projected year-end ARRs for Hong Kong-listed Zhipu AI to US$2.5 billion and MiniMax to US$1.0 billion.
Goldman pointed to intensifying competition among Chinese AI models on a performance-to-price basis. It cited MiniMax’s last Friday launch of its H3 model under an open-weight approach, alongside the view that the multi-modal system priced at 30.0% to 50.0% of incumbent market levels.
The note also referenced DeepSeek’s last Friday launch of application programming interface access for its V4 Flash model, which Goldman said delivers front-end coding capabilities that rival Zhipu’s GLM-5.2. SCMP Economy added that Arena AI’s leaderboard places GLM-5.2 seventh globally for front-end coding, with DeepSeek V4 Flash close behind in eighth.