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USDA forecasts smaller Canadian wheat crop in 2026-27

The Foreign Agricultural Service projects Canadian wheat output at 34.6 million tonnes for the 2026-27 marketing year, down from 39.9 million last year.

Reported · Written up by our desk · Agriculture

A decline in planted area is expected to cut Canadian wheat production by 13% year over year, according to the latest forecast from the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the US Department of Agriculture.

For the 2026-27 marketing year, which began Aug. 1, the FAS projects wheat output at 34.6 million tonnes versus last year’s record 39.9 million tonnes. The agency linked the shortfall to spring wheat planting setbacks in the Prairie Provinces, citing above-average rainfall and lingering cold that delayed planting and emergence, which can reduce yields and increase fall frost damage.

FAS data cited crop condition as of June 29, with 23% of the spring wheat crop in Saskatchewan rated excellent, 68% good, and 8% fair. In Alberta, only 70% of spring wheat was rated good to excellent, reflecting heavy rains in parts of the northeast and central growing regions.

Despite the spring delays, durum wheat planting was not expected to be delayed, and the FAS projected an exceptional yield in southwestern Saskatchewan and southeastern Alberta, with favorable-to-average yields elsewhere. With a smaller crop, exports are forecast to fall from 29.9 million tonnes last year to 27.9 million in 2026-27, and a weaker-than-expected Canadian dollar is expected to pressure competitiveness by raising export prices versus 2025, the agency said.

Latest closeWheat $638.00 ▼2.0%

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