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Brent and WTI expected to swing in wide range amid Hormuz risk
Rabobank says it sees Brent trading roughly $70-$75 and $95-$100, with forecast increases for late 2026 and 2027.
Renewed US-Iran tensions and disruptions tied to the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab al-Mandab have pushed oil prices sharply higher before pulling back, according to Rabobank commentary cited by FXStreet. Rabobank’s Joe DeLaura links the volatility to ongoing geopolitical headlines that can quickly change shipping flows and supply expectations.
DeLaura expects Brent to oscillate within a wide range, with geopolitical developments around Hormuz and Bab al-Mandab driving the direction. As of the note, Brent was near $81 and WTI at $76.30 per barrel, Rabobank said, and it targets support of $70-$75 at the low end and $95-$100 at the upper bound.
Rabobank also argues that a short term deal to open Hormuz for commercial shipping is unlikely, pointing to limited common ground on the core issues in the conflict. Instead, Rabobank expects any progress to possibly take the form of another roughly 60 day window of free transits while negotiations continue.
Looking ahead, Rabobank raises its Brent and WTI forecasts for late 2026 and 2027. It also forecasts that Hormuz flows could return only to 50%-60% of prewar levels by 2027, while Middle East refinery exports are assumed to normalize only by mid 2028, leaving a gap between crude supply and refined product flows.
Forecast changes cited by Rabobank include Brent Q3 2026 raised to $84 per barrel, Q4 2026 raised to $80, and 2027 raised to $76.50, while WTI is raised to $80.50 for Q3 2026, $76 for Q4 2026, and $72.25 for 2027.
Latest closeWTI crude $78.07 ▲3.8%|Brent $83.46