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Bitcoin set for weekend range between $63,000 and $66,400 as options quiet
After the Aug. 7 jobs report, traders cut odds of a September Fed hike to about 44%, while US spot Bitcoin ETFs drew $763.7 million this week.
Bitcoin was trading near $65,000 heading into the weekend as two macro forces pulled in opposite directions, with an options market setup suggesting a relatively quiet two-day range. According to CryptoSlate, Deribit’s implied Bitcoin volatility index (DVOL) was around 35, down from roughly 90 earlier this year, and at that volatility the options market implied a two-day move of about 2.59%, or roughly $1,676, placing the expected range between $63,000 and $66,400.
The weekend scenario also hinges on rate expectations after the Aug. 7 jobs report, which showed the US economy lost 23,000 jobs in July versus economists’ roughly 80,000 gain estimate. Traders responded by cutting the odds of a September Fed hike from 57% to about 44%, and the outlet also cited moves in Treasury yields and the dollar after the release.
CryptoSlate further linked the setup to positioning in Bitcoin options, where puts accounted for 53.8% of options volume over the past 24 hours and $62,000 and $63,000 puts were among the most actively traded contracts, signaling some hedging demand beyond what the volatility index priced. On the demand side, US-traded spot Bitcoin ETFs pulled in $763.7 million this week, their strongest pace since April, the outlet said, and wallets holding between 10 and 10,000 BTC added more than 20,000 BTC since July 29.
Broader macro risk also remained in focus, with tensions around the Strait of Hormuz cited as a potential catalyst for the “inflation trade” that the jobs report just cooled. The same report noted Brent crude rebounded into the low $80s, settling up 3.83% at $82.49, and Iran reviewed a bill that would ban certain vessels from the strait and fine violators as much as 20% of cargo value.
Latest closeWTI crude $78.07 ▲3.8%|Brent $83.46 |Bitcoin $64,929.07 ▲0.1%