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Australia wheat crop outlook lifts after well-timed eastern rains

Rabobank raised its 2026 wheat forecast range to as much as 30 million tons, after an earlier estimate as low as 21.3 million tons.

Reported · Written up by our desk · Agriculture

Prospects for Australia’s upcoming wheat crop have improved after well-timed rainfall across major eastern growing regions, New South Wales, Queensland, and Victoria, prompting analysts to upgrade their initially dire forecasts for the 2026 harvest, LiveMint Markets reports, citing Bloomberg.

Rabobank previously projected the wheat crop could come in as low as 21.3 million tons in May, down more than 40% from the prior year, and now expects it could reach as high as 30 million tons. Bendigo Bank Agribusiness’ revised forecast is similar at around 30 million tons, with potential upside to about 33 million tons, still below last year’s 35.8 million tons but above Australia’s 10-year production average.

The pickup matters for global supply as disruptions to shipping in the Black Sea and heat waves across the Northern Hemisphere weigh on wheat availability, contributing to a two-year high in Chicago wheat futures in July. With exports from other grain-producing nations constrained, Australia could help supply major importers including Indonesia and the Philippines, and possibly China.

The report also notes that fears about fertilizer and fuel shortages tied to the war in Iran have eased, with Australian diesel prices down about a quarter from their April peak and fertilizer costs improving globally. A farmer in northeastern Victoria said strong, consistent rainfall in the first six months left her family’s farm positioned for a better crop than earlier in the year, when she expected severe heat and dryness and more severe input constraints.

Latest closeWheat $629.25 ▼2.0%

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