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Bitcoin faces an inflation and bond-demand test as Treasury sells $125B
The Treasury will auction $58B of 3-year notes, $42B of 10-year notes, and $25B of 30-year bonds from Aug. 11 to Aug. 13, just hours after July CPI and PPI releases.
CryptoSlate is pointing to a tightly timed sequence of US Treasury supply and inflation data that could challenge the relationship between bond yields and Bitcoin in the near term. The Treasury auctions total $125 billion from Aug. 11 through Aug. 13, while two Bureau of Labor Statistics inflation reports land hours before the corresponding 10-year and 30-year sales.
The Treasury refunding begins with $58 billion of 3-year notes at 1 p.m. EDT on Aug. 11, followed by $42 billion of 10-year notes on Aug. 12, and $25 billion of 30-year bonds on Aug. 13. All three issues settle Aug. 17, and the article notes the gross $125 billion figure is not a full liquidity drain because about $96.3 billion will refinance privately held debt maturing Aug. 15, leaving approximately $28.7 billion of new cash to raise from investors.
The inflation data schedule is set up to act as a timed test for bond demand and any spillover into Bitcoin. July CPI is scheduled for 8:30 a.m. EDT on Aug. 12, four and a half hours before the 10-year auction, and July PPI arrives at 8:30 a.m. the following day, with the same interval before the 30-year sale.
CryptoSlate also provides a starting snapshot for context, citing par-yield levels as of the latest business-day cutoff on Aug. 7 at 4.25% for 3-year, 4.65% for 10-year, and 5.19% for 30-year yields. It says any link between yields and Bitcoin has to be evaluated around the same inflation releases and auction results, rather than from non-simultaneous market references.
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