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Commercial insurance rates drop for 9th quarter as casualty rises
Marsh estimated global commercial rates fell 6% on average in Q2 2026, while property dropped 12% and casualty rose 2% amid US claims severity and litigation pressure.
Global commercial insurance rates are still declining overall, but recent data show a growing split between lines, with casualty moving opposite to property, according to findings published by Aon and Marsh in their Q2 2026 market reports. Aon’s Q2 2026 Global Insurance Market Insights report, published on August 6, said abundant capacity and strong competition continue to support favorable conditions for buyers across most major lines, including rate reductions and broader coverage with improved terms. Marsh’s Global Insurance Market Index for the same quarter recorded an average 6% decline in global commercial rates for the eighth consecutive quarterly fall, with property rates down 12%.
Casualty rates, however, increased, with Marsh recording a 2% rise in casualty rates driven largely by higher claims severity and litigation pressure in the US. Aon also pointed to commercial auto and US casualty as the clearest exceptions to generally favorable conditions. Both reports said the divergence matters for renewal strategy, because treating the market as uniformly soft can lead to mispricing risk and overpromising where leverage has already disappeared. Aon added that insurers are increasingly using data, analytics, and artificial intelligence to steer underwriting decisions, with better quality and more granular risk submissions becoming more important to underwriting and capital deployment decisions.
Aon also attributed a key shift in underwriting scrutiny to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, citing heightened exposure across marine, aviation, terrorism, political violence, and energy and trade related risks. The reports highlighted that these pressures are showing up in specific segments including Marine Hull and War, Marine P and I, Aviation, and Terrorism-related coverage.