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Softer US CPI could push EUR/USD above 1.1600

ING says EUR/USD is being driven mainly by US rate expectations, with the next resistance at the 200-day moving average around 1.1630.

Reported · Written up by our desk · Major Pairs

ING’s Francesco Pesole said EUR/USD is entering a quiet stretch for euro-area drivers, with key July data already out and ECB communication expected to stay subdued in August.

With the ECB having already signaled a September hike, Pesole argued the pair is now dominated by the US side, so a softer US Consumer Price Index print could raise the odds of EUR/USD breaking above 1.1600.

The note also pointed to short-term rate differentials as the main driver, adding that sensitivity to the Fed story should remain high in the near term.

If EUR/USD clears 1.1600, the next resistance is the 200-day moving average near 1.1630, according to ING.

Latest closeEUR/USD 1.138 ▼0.6%

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