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Critical mineral supply risks hinge on processing and delivery, study finds
The GEM report says expected supply covers only 68% of lithium needs, 74% for cobalt and 75% for copper through 2035, while some minerals with high coverage still face chain fragility.
A GEM Mining Consulting study warns that future critical-mineral shortages through 2035 may depend as much on whether producers can process and deliver usable material as on whether enough ore is mined. GEM analyzed copper, lithium, nickel, cobalt, battery-grade graphite and magnet rare earths using the International Energy Agency 2035 outlook.
Across multiple minerals, GEM found supply can look adequate on paper while risks remain embedded in the supply chain. Expected supply coverage is cited at 68% for lithium requirements, 74% for cobalt and 75% for copper, while graphite and magnet rare earths are expected to reach 96% and 107% supply coverage, respectively, but score highest on GEM’s chain fragility measures.
GEM also highlights that “nameplate” capacity forecasts can exaggerate real-world output because they may not reflect commissioning, ramp-up, product quality, customer qualification or operating disruptions. In a worked example, GEM says those hurdles could reduce a hypothetical 100,000-tonne annual nameplate project to 60,200 tonnes of reliable output.
The study argues that governments and industry should tailor solutions by mineral, pointing to different needs for copper, lithium and cobalt versus graphite and magnet rare earths, where GEM says processing diversification, technology and customer bases are key. Mining.com reports the findings underscore that scarcity must be assessed across both volume shortfalls and chain fragility, using GEM’s screening scores rather than disruption probabilities.
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