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Dollar index holds near 99.80 as next US data arrives

Futures price a September 16 Fed hold at 50.1%, while September 2027 is the first point where a rate cut is meaningfully reflected in the curve.

Reported · Written up by our desk · Major Pairs

The US Dollar Index was trading near 99.80 on Tuesday, moving inside a range of less than two tenths of a point, with the market seeing little near-term signal from scheduled events, according to FXStreet.

The session had two US releases with limited impact, private hiring's four-week average falling to 8.25K from 11K and existing home sales down 1.7% month over month.

Market-implied odds left the September 16 meeting essentially even, with futures showing a hold priced at 50.1% versus a quarter point increase at 49.9%, the flattest reading of the year and another day near dead heat.

FXStreet said the broader distribution behind the front meeting matters more than the next decision, noting the curve shows no rate cut pricing at eight consecutive FOMC meetings and that CPI on Wednesday is expected to trade as the key disinflation read, while Thursday's PPI could reintroduce hawkish pressure if the headline and core gaps persist.

Latest closeDollar index 99.81 ▲0.2%

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