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EIA lifts 2026 and 2027 crude forecasts on Middle East supply risks
WTI is projected to average $80.9 in 2026 and Brent $86.8, while the outlook estimates 5.5 million bpd of Middle East output shut-ins in July.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration raised its crude oil price forecasts for 2026 and 2027, citing tighter expected supply conditions tied to Middle East production disruptions and risks to key shipping routes, according to Forexlive’s summary of the latest EIA outlook.
In the agency’s updated baseline, WTI is now seen averaging $80.88 in 2026 and Brent $86.81 in 2026, alongside a reduction in expected 2026 global oil production. The outlook also points to an estimated 5.5 million bpd of Middle East output shut-ins in July.
Demand forecasts were little changed, though 2027 demand was revised slightly higher. The report still flags a potential bearish offset, with prices expected to fall sharply in 2027 as supply conditions improve.
For the current market, crude prices were up, with crude at $83.19 at the time of the update, and trading ranged from $81.27 to $84.61. Forexlive said the combination of higher price forecasts, lower production expectations, and Middle East disruption risks makes the near-term outlook bullish.
Latest closeWTI crude $82.30 ▲5.3%|Brent $87.85 ▲5.2%