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High crude prices boost Q1 profits for ONGC and Oil India, output diverges
ONGC saw its oil and gas output fall 3.9% year over year to 9.8 mmtoe in Q1FY27, while Oil India expanded output as stronger crude realizations supported earnings.
Higher crude oil realizations helped support first-quarter profits for India’s state-owned oil explorers ONGC and Oil India, according to LiveMint Markets, with both companies posting stronger earnings in the June quarter. Nomura Global Markets Research estimated ONGC’s Ebitdax rose 67% to ₹ 29,250 crore and Oil India’s Ebitdax increased 110% to ₹ 4,300 crore in Q1FY27.
While Brent crude has eased from its recent peak, LiveMint Markets notes the average in Q2FY27 so far is roughly 20% higher than in Q2FY26, improving near-term earnings visibility for both firms. The outlet also said a government program, the ₹ 84,000-crore Samudra Manthan scheme approved in July, is expected to provide a medium-term boost by reducing exploration risk through support for deepwater projects.
Even with the shared crude tailwind, company-specific factors are shaping the outlook. ONGC’s oil and gas production declined 3.9% year over year to 9.8 million tonnes of oil equivalent in Q1FY27, with the drop linked to reservoir complexities at the KG-98/2 block, delayed pipeline replacement projects due to bad weather, and temporary well shutdowns during commissioning.
LiveMint Markets added that ONGC’s standalone production guidance for FY27, excluding joint ventures, is 39 mmtoe, slightly above FY26’s 38.9 mmtoe, and output is projected to rise to nearly 40 mmtoe in FY28. However, Nuvama Research said it remains cautious due to repeated misses in ONGC’s production guidance over the past eight years and cited a long-running decline in past production and reserves, while also cutting FY27 and FY28 Ebitdax estimates by 7% and 5%.
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