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$1.4T of US property reconstruction value exposed to wildfire risk

Cotality says 2.5 million properties across the 10 most exposed states face at least moderate wildfire risk, and the company updated maps that now capture home-to-home spread and conflagration.

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More than $1T of real estate is at risk from wildfires in just the 10 most exposed states, according to new maps from analytics firm Cotality. The firm estimates 2.5 million properties in those states carry at least a moderate wildfire risk, totaling about $1.4T in reconstruction cost value. Cotality said the updated approach accounts for how wildfires spread from home to home, which it said puts more properties at risk than prior assessments. It also said the data can help underwriters shift from broad risk scoring toward property-level evaluation as they expand underwriting capacity.

In its latest findings, California holds the largest share of exposure, with 1.28 million properties at risk that would cost $850B to rebuild. Outside California, just under half of the at-risk properties in the top 10 states are located elsewhere, with Colorado and Texas contributing about 560,000 properties tied to $252B in reconstruction costs. Cotality also flagged the mitigation implications of its rankings, saying communities with higher property-level mitigation efforts in California show a 78% lower expected loss rate. The research highlights that wildfire risk increases significantly when conflagration is considered, meaning fire fuel moves from wildland into neighborhoods and spreads between homes.

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