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Dollar outlook hinges on US CPI as Fed hike risk fades
Commerzbank expects July US inflation to rise just 0.1% month-on-month, with headline and core readings at 3.4% and 2.5% year-on-year, which could shift rate expectations and USD direction.
Commerzbank FX analyst Antje Praefcke said July US inflation is expected to increase only 0.1% month-on-month, with the headline rate slipping to 3.4% year-on-year and core inflation to 2.5% year-on-year.
She argued the Federal Reserve is unlikely to hike in September, but said markets could adjust their rate expectations and move the US dollar depending on the CPI data and ongoing Middle East developments.
In FX trading ahead of the release, GBP/USD held near 1.3500, while EUR/USD stayed around 1.1550 as traders waited for fresh impetus from US CPI.
Elsewhere in markets, the report noted gold climbed back above $4,400 during the Asian session and pointed to the CPI as a key cue for the Federal Reserve policy path amid inflation risks linked to volatile oil prices, with the US Bureau of Labor Statistics set to publish July CPI on Wednesday.
Latest closeGold $4,430.80 ▲1.6%|EUR/USD 1.155 ▼0.1%|GBP/USD 1.351 ▲0.1%