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EIA expects 600,000 bpd of Middle East oil to stay offline through 2026
The EIA raised its third-quarter oil price forecasts after assuming Hormuz flows remain severely constrained through August and only slowly recover in September.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration said in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook that the Strait of Hormuz could remain effectively constrained longer than previously expected, leaving part of Middle East crude supply offline through the end of 2026.
Under the EIA’s assumptions, oil shipments through Hormuz are expected to be severely constrained through August, then begin slowly increasing in September, with production shut-ins in the region gradually easing.
The EIA expects most Middle East crude output to return to near pre-conflict averages in early 2027, but it forecasts that about 600,000 barrels per day will remain shut in through the end of 2026.
The EIA also said it does not expect Houthi threats to ships moving Saudi crude oil through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait have caused additional crude production shut-ins, even as the Hormuz disruption reduces supply and contributes to lower global inventories.
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