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EIA expects about 600,000 bpd of Middle East oil offline through 2026
The EIA said constrained flows through the Strait of Hormuz would keep oil supplies tighter, lifting its Q3 oil price forecasts as inventories run down.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration expects part of Middle East crude production to stay offline through the end of 2026 due to longer-than-expected closure conditions affecting the Strait of Hormuz.
In its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, the EIA said renewed Middle East tensions that intensified in late July and continued into August have kept traffic at Hormuz severely constrained through August, prompting it to raise its third-quarter oil price forecasts.
The EIA projects that oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz will begin slowly increasing in September, with most Middle East crude output returning to near pre-conflict averages in early 2027, but about 600,000 barrels per day will remain shut in through end-2026.
The forecast also assumes shipments through Hormuz remain severely constrained through August, while the EIA said Houthi threats to ships carrying Saudi crude through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait have not led to additional crude production shut-ins.
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