Bonds & Rates
Home›Bonds & Rates›Inflation›July CPI rises 3.4% as energy volatility eases and cor…
July CPI rises 3.4% as energy volatility eases and core cools
Even with headline inflation easing to 3.4% year over year, core CPI was 2.5% and traders priced a 64.0% chance the Fed keeps rates at 3.5% to 3.75% in September, according to CME FedWatch.
Yahoo Finance reports that the Consumer Price Index rose 3.4% in July from a year earlier, slightly lower than June’s 3.5% increase. On a monthly basis, prices edged up 0.1% after a surprise 0.4% drop in June, and both the annual and monthly figures matched economists’ expectations.
Energy prices have been volatile as oil markets react to developments in the US and Iran conflict. Energy costs rose over the month after a ceasefire fell apart, while gasoline prices were still lower on average than June, with gasoline down 2.9% month over month but up 24.6% over the past year, according to US Energy Information Administration data.
Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, was up 2.5% year over year and 0.2% month over month. Shelter costs increased 0.1% and food prices rose 0.1%, while some categories showed pressure easing, including auto insurance with a 4.5% annual decline and health insurance down 8%.
Despite moderating gas, plane ticket costs continued to rise, up 2.2% from June to July and 25.5% over the last year. Yahoo Finance also noted that inflation in line with expectations is likely to keep the Fed divided about whether to hike in September, with traders seeing a 64.0% chance of holding benchmark rates at 3.5% to 3.75% next month, based on CME FedWatch.
Latest closeGasoline (RBOB) $2.892 ▼7.8%