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Hormuz stalemate keeps oil market balancing risk and dwindling inventories
Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is at two-month lows, and analysts warn a prolonged stalemate could push the physical market toward shortages and sharp price spikes.
OilPrice reports that traders and analysts are increasingly caught between two competing oil price scenarios, disrupted exports through the Strait of Hormuz amid the US Iran standoff, and the possibility of a deal that would reopen flows trapped in the Persian Gulf.
The outlet says the apparent stalemate over control of the strait, which is mostly closed, has kept crude oil futures driven by shifting sentiment and limited hope for an imminent restart of shipping. The war began on February 28, and the article notes that, since then, the market has repeatedly spiked and reversed as threats escalated and expectations changed.
OilPrice adds that global inventories are being depleted, including through releases from strategic stockpiles, even as China restrained imports earlier in the year. The article says China, after a decade-low import level in May and June, is now buying more crude, but persistent stalemate could still heighten the risk of a shortage-driven turning point.
The story cautions that if the talks and strait control issues persist for weeks, analysts expect the physical oil market could reach a tipping point where shortages begin to be felt and prices spike, even though futures have not yet moved to record highs.
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