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Oil prices ease as US crude inventories jump and forecasts diverge
ING said Brent ended largely flat as US commercial crude stocks rose 17.4 million barrels, while IEA and OPEC have conflicting views on 2026 demand and supply.
Oil prices eased, but Brent crude ended the day largely flat as negotiations between the US and Iran remained in deadlock, ING analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey said in a note carried by FXStreet.
They pointed to data from the US EIA showing a large inventory build, with US commercial crude oil inventories increasing by 17.42 million barrels over the last week. Once Strategic Petroleum Reserve releases are included, total crude stocks rose by 11.31 million barrels, the largest weekly increase since January 2023, ING said.
The analysts also cited diverging forecasts from the International Energy Agency and OPEC about 2026 oil demand and supply, which they said is contributing to growing deficit risk and continuing concern about disruption in the Middle East. ING noted the IEA expects a 1.8 million bpd deficit in 3Q26, while OPEC remains more upbeat on demand, forecasting global demand growth of 580,000 bpd year over year.
ING added that despite a reported drone attack on Russia’s Novorossiysk port, there were no reports of damage to oil terminals as of now, and it said the latest event appeared to have spared key oil infrastructure.
Latest closeWTI crude $82.68 ▼0.6%|Brent $88.46 ▼0.5%