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CATL Jianxiawo lithium mine uncertainty threatens global supply into 2027
Benchmark Mineral Intelligence estimates a prolonged Jianxiawo shutdown could put about 60,000 tonnes of lithium carbonate equivalent supply at risk in China’s Jiangxi province.
Mining.com reports that uncertainty surrounding Contemporary Amperex Technology’s, or CATL’s, Jianxiawo lithium mine is raising concerns about tighter global lithium supply extending into 2027, even as restart speculation has driven sharp price swings.
Benchmark Mineral Intelligence estimates a prolonged shutdown could put about 60,000 tonnes of lithium carbonate equivalent, or LCE, supply at risk in Jiangxi province. CATL suspended Jianxiawo in August 2025 after its mining licence expired, and while the company secured a safety production permit on June 29, operations have not resumed and the timing assumptions used by Benchmark are no longer current.
The outlet notes that a later restart could materially reduce expected 2026 output from the operation, which accounts for about 4% of global supply. It also links the renewed supply concerns to recent moves in lithium prices, including a nearly 30% decline since May amid rumours about Jianxiawo’s return, along with large two day and weekly swings on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange.
Mining.com adds that the delayed restart comes alongside other potential supply constraints, including Zimbabwe’s plan to ban lithium concentrate exports from Jan. 1. CRU Group analyst Cameron Hughes, as cited by the outlet, said a notable portion of global concentrate supply could be trapped in Zimbabwe, while the market also faces shifting demand as battery storage and electric vehicle sales reshape demand dynamics.