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Rystad cuts forecast for Russia’s 2026 crude output on sanctions hit
Rystad Energy expects Russia’s crude production to average 8.95 million barrels per day in 2026, then fall to about 8.6 million bpd in 2027 as export disruptions reduce seaborne reliability and raise costs.
OilPrice reports that tighter sanctions and Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries, ports, and tankers have contributed to further declines in Russia’s crude output in the second half of 2026.
Rystad Energy revised its outlook, now projecting Russian crude production to average 8.95 million barrels per day in 2026, followed by a decline to around 8.6 million bpd in 2027. The update reflects renewed disruptions at western export terminals and rising risks to seaborne exports, which have become less reliable and more expensive.
The analysis also points to limited buffer capacity, with onshore crude inventories at levels that make sustained production cuts harder to avoid if additional disruptions occur.
It adds that a projected global oil surplus in 2027 could weigh on benchmark prices, limiting Russia’s bargaining power with buyers as deep crude discounts, sanctions-related costs, and lower sales volumes continue to pressure revenues.
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