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China rocket failure sparks fast, unverified engine and structure theories
Independent trackers based on launch footage narrowed the breakup to about 85 seconds after liftoff, during first-stage and booster burn.
China’s Long March-7A rocket disintegrated over the South China Sea on August 10, and the public debate over what went wrong has accelerated even though no official cause has been confirmed, according to SCMP Economy.
SCMP Economy reports that within hours of the failure, market and trade commentary increasingly pointed to the YF-100 kerosene-oxygen engine as the likely culprit. But it notes that the China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation, or CASC, did not provide that kind of explanation, and an official Xinhua update issued about three hours after launch described only a “flight anomaly” with an investigation underway.
Two competing theories have since circulated without official backing. One centers on an engine anomaly involving the YF-100, which powers the 7A’s first stage and four boosters and is also used on multiple other Long March variants. The other points to a possible structural failure near Max-Q, the period of highest aerodynamic stress during ascent.
Independent space flight trackers, SCMP Economy says, reached their view by reviewing launch footage frame by frame. Some argue the engine anomaly would have been too brief to account for the later breakup, while others contend an engine problem could have led to structural failure under heavy aerodynamic loads, with both theories grounded in the timing of the breakup, about 85 seconds after launch.