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Canada’s pipeline plans face output uncertainty as oil sands stay cautious

If Canada builds the pipelines now proposed, Reuters calculations show export capacity could rise 45% by 2035, but that would require supply growth more than a third by 2034 and new oil sands projects on a scale none have undertaken in over a decade.

Thursday, August 20, 2026 · Written up by our desk · Energy

Canadian pipeline firms are laying out billions of dollars in new projects to move crude to the United States and to export markets on Canada’s Pacific coast, even as oil sands companies hold back on committing to major production increases.

At least six pipeline projects are underway or proposed, and Reuters calculations project that, if fully built, Canada’s export pipeline capacity would increase by 45%, or 2.25 million barrels per day, by 2035. Filling those additional pipes would require Canadian oil supply to rise by more than a third by 2034, a near doubling of its current annual average growth rate.

Producers would also need to advance major new oil sands developments of the type no company has undertaken in more than a decade. The gap between planned export expansion and the pace of expected output raises doubts about how easily Canada can pursue Prime Minister Mark Carney’s energy superpower ambitions.

Reuters adds that Suncor Energy and Canadian Natural Resources both said this month they are not yet willing to accelerate plans for production increases, and Enbridge postponed a second phase of its Mainline expansion after customers did not commit to capacity increases, with the company pointing to producers behaving with discipline.

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