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China oil imports expected to rise by about 1.2 million bpd in Q4

Fourth-quarter import rates could reach 9.9 million barrels per day, well below the 12 to 13 million barrels per day peak level from last year, as high prices and refinery crude requirements limit buying.

Reported · Written up by our desk · Energy

Crude oil imports into China are expected to increase by roughly 1.2 million barrels per day in the final quarter of the year versus the current quarter, according to Bloomberg, citing energy consultancies.

Oil purchases by Chinese refiners are climbing back toward 10 million barrels daily, but analysts from Rystad Energy, Energy Aspects, and FGE NexantECA said the figure is unlikely to be reached until the end of the year. Fourth-quarter import rates could reach 9.9 million barrels per day, down from last year’s peaks of between 12 and 13 million barrels per day.

Pricing conditions are a key constraint on demand, with Brent crude above $93 per barrel and the OPEC basket at about $91.27, which has weakened appetite for additional oil. China also retains substantial volumes in storage, having built inventories of more than 1 billion barrels over the past two years.

The type of crude matters as well, since many Chinese refineries require medium sour grades that were previously supplied heavily from the Middle East. With Middle East flows still disrupted and exports remaining far below early-year levels, refiners are looking to alternatives in Africa and South America, as high crude prices deter larger stockpiling activity, Energy Aspects analyst Jianan Sun said.

Latest closeWTI crude $82.40 ▲1.4%|Brent $88.59 ▲1.8%

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