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Argentina to forecast record ethanol output in 2026 as blending rules expand
The Foreign Agricultural Service expects March 2026 rules to let distributors blend up to 15% ethanol through voluntary deals above a 12% mandatory rate.
Argentina’s fuel ethanol production is forecast to reach a record 1.35 billion liters in 2026, according to a report cited by the Foreign Agricultural Service of the US Department of Agriculture. The outlook is supported by record domestic consumption and added corn-based production capacity as Argentina reviews its biofuels policies.
A March 2026 regulation would allow fuel distributors to blend up to 15% ethanol through voluntary agreements above the mandatory 12% rate, the FAS said. Corn-based ethanol is expected to make up roughly 60% of output, with sugar accounting for the rest, while stronger domestic demand is forecast to trim exports modestly.
The report also links corn bioethanol growth to a record corn crop in marketing year 2025 to 2026, with harvest more than halfway complete. It projects domestic consumption of 18 million to 19 million tonnes, about 30% of total production, and says corn used for bioethanol in 2026 would be around 3% of Argentina’s total corn output.
For biodiesel, output is forecast to rise 8% in 2026 to 1.2 billion liters, though exports are expected to be at their lowest level since 2007 and the industry may run at only about 27% of installed capacity. The FAS attributes export weakness to uncertainty in the EU regulatory framework earlier in 2026, while noting a European Parliament vote in early July confirmed soybean-based biodiesel remains eligible under the EU renewable energy framework.
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