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Bitcoin holds above $78,000 as markets price higher Fed hike odds

Traders assign 40.0% odds of a 25-basis-point Fed move at mid-September, with the probability rising to 55.0% in late October and 75.0% in early December.

Reported · Written up by our desk · Market Structure

CoinDesk reported Bitcoin was flat to slightly lower, down 0.3% over the past 24 hours while holding above $78,000 as risk assets softened ahead of upcoming catalysts.

The crypto move coincided with a broader risk-off turn tied to rates, CoinDesk said. The U.S. dollar index edged higher above 99.1, and Treasury yields rose across the curve, with the 10-year yield reaching 4.65% and the 30-year yield at 5.18%.

CoinDesk also linked the cautious tone to investors trimming risk ahead of Nvidia earnings after Wednesday’s close, while gold fell 1% but stayed above $4,600 an ounce.

In rate expectations, the outlet cited CME FedWatch, showing traders’ odds for a 25-basis-point Fed action at 40.0% for the mid-September meeting, 55.0% for the late-October meeting, and 75.0% for the early-December meeting. CoinDesk added that Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole keynote could disappoint investors seeking guidance because he has expressed skepticism about central bankers providing forecasts.

Latest closeGold $4,157.80 ▲0.4%|Bitcoin $81,906.63 ▼1.4%|Dollar index 102.12 ▼0.1%

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