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Conflicts threaten roughly half the world’s oil supply and refining output

Reuters cited by OilPrice says about 45 million barrels per day of supply comes from conflict regions, while fuel shortages and tighter refining capacity are worsening pressure beyond crude prices.

Reported · Written up by our desk · Energy

Almost half of the world’s oil supply is produced in regions currently involved in hot conflicts, a Reuters finding highlighted by OilPrice. The outlet said the concentration of production in conflict zones raises concerns about long term oil supply security and how far diversification can offset disruption.

OilPrice linked the problem to both crude and refined fuels, saying Ukraine’s drone campaign targeting Russian refineries has not produced concessions from Moscow but has helped trigger fuel shortages. It also noted Russia’s role as the world’s second largest fuel exporter, which helped create spillovers beyond Russian borders.

The analysis pointed to the Gulf states as large refined fuel exporters and argued that analysts are increasingly focused on the refining and fuel crisis rather than only crude oil. OilPrice said global refining capacity has shrunk over the past decade, with Europe particularly affected.

OilPrice added that Europe’s dependence on imported fuels has contributed to diesel prices rising 70.0% versus February, underscoring the potential for rationing, emergency releases from storage, and broader knock on effects as conflicts disrupt both production and refining.

Latest closeWTI crude $81.58 ▼0.9%

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