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Bitcoin faces “Rektember” risk as Fed hike odds rise

CoinDesk reports bitcoin is down about 1% to below $78,000 as markets price a 66% chance of a 25-basis-point Fed hike on Sept. 16.

Reported · Written up by our desk · Market Structure

September is traditionally a weak month for risk assets, and bitcoin in particular is entering what traders call “Rektember.” According to CoinDesk, since 2013 September has produced an average bitcoin decline of around 3%, with only five positive monthly returns.

This year, the move is also tied to shifting rate expectations. Markets are pricing a 66% chance of a 25-basis-point Fed hike at the Sept. 16 meeting, and CoinDesk notes that higher yields have followed a hawkish Jackson Hole speech, with the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield reaching 4.784%.

CoinDesk adds that those expectations, if realized, would push the federal funds target range to 4.00-4.25% by the close of 2026. Higher interest rates can tighten financial conditions and strengthen the U.S. dollar, which tends to pressure risk assets including bitcoin.

Broader market signals are also mixed. CoinDesk reports gold is down more than 2% and WTI crude is up to $88 a barrel, while it also notes that September has been the only month since 1975 with a negative average return for the S&P 500.

Latest closeGold $4,376.80 ▼1.2%|WTI crude $90.79 ▲5.9%|Bitcoin $77,351.59 ▼1.5%

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