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Bitcoin’s halving-driven cycle may be fading as institutional flows grow
Analyst Willy Woo said Bitcoin’s 2028 halving could cut annual new issuance to about 82,125 BTC, while public-company and ETF holdings now far exceed new miner supply.
Bitcoin may be shifting away from a strict four-year, halving-linked rhythm as institutional capital and broader macro liquidity play a larger role in price, according to analysis cited by CryptoSlate.
On Sept. 3, Bitcoin analyst Willy Woo said Bitcoin could be moving toward a 6-to-8-year market rhythm tied more closely to traditional finance’s short-term debt cycle than to the halving schedule, while noting halvings still matter but their influence is shrinking relative to capital routed through exchange-traded products and corporate treasuries.
Woo pointed to the April 2024 halving, which reduced the block reward to 3.125 BTC and left annual new issuance at roughly 164,250 BTC, about 0.82% of current circulating supply. He estimated the next halving, expected in 2028, would cut that pace to about 82,125 BTC a year, or roughly 0.41% of today’s supply base.
He also said the balance of who holds Bitcoin has changed, with institutional holdings now dwarfing the amount miners add each year. Data from Bitcoin Treasuries showed 100 public companies hold more than 1.2 million BTC, while Bitcoin exchange-traded products hold more than 1.5 million coins, a stock that is already more than 16 times the amount produced by miners in a year, and would widen further after 2028.
CryptoSlate noted that Bitcoin’s historical four-year pattern has always been approximate, and other research cited in the piece said the cycle may still be visible but with shrinking amplitude, including views from Galaxy Research, 21Shares, and Fidelity Digital Assets.
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