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Global air-conditioning demand set to surge as climate heat worsens
IEA data cited in the analysis projects the global AC stock in buildings will rise to 5.6 billion by 2050 from 2.5 billion today, with India’s share jumping from 48 million units in 2020 to 1.1 billion.
A climate-focused analysis from Guardian Economics says demand for air conditioning is set to accelerate as the world warms and emission cuts fall short of stabilizing temperatures. It points to a scenario where warming more than 3C above preindustrial averages would increase heatwaves in major cities, with low-income countries facing particularly heavy impacts, including an average of 6.9 heatwaves per year. The article argues that access to cooling will expand unevenly across countries, with many hotter, lower-income nations having limited current use. It notes that 90% of households in the US and Japan use artificial cooling, while shares are far lower in Indonesia at 9% and in India at 5%. It also says only 8% of people living in the hottest parts of the world currently have air conditioning, according to the International Energy Agency. Guardian Economics cites projections that the global stock of air conditioners in buildings will grow to 5.6 billion by 2050 from 2.5 billion today. It further says India’s installed AC inventory is expected to rise from 48 million units in 2020 to 1.1 billion in 2050, a 23-fold increase, while noting that even meeting Paris climate targets would still leave a sizable portion of the population in warm regions needing AC. The analysis highlights the energy implications, warning that scaling cooling could increase power demand sharply. It reports that Harvard researchers estimated cooling-related power demand in India and Indonesia by 2050 could reach as much as 75% of their current total annual electricity demand, adding that cooling energy already accounted for a major share of electricity use in 2022, including for residential and commercial buildings and for cold chains for food and pharmaceuticals.