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Iraq targets higher oil output in bid to outpace Saudi Arabia
A commentary argues Iraq could reach 8 million to 10 million barrels per day within six years, depending on how efficiently it develops proven crude reserves.
OilPrice explores whether Iraq could overtake Saudi Arabia as the Middle East’s top oil producer by lifting output toward a new target range. The analysis notes that the region’s major powers remain heavily reliant on oil and gas production, which can drive efforts to raise output or to signal higher production capacity.
The piece contrasts Iraq’s track record and Saudi Arabia’s. It says Iraq’s crude oil production averaged 2.38 million barrels per day from 1973 to 2026, while before a blockade affecting a major oil transit route began in February it was producing 4.14 million barrels per day. For Saudi Arabia, the article says it has never sustained output near the claimed “capacity” figures cited at various times, and that its crude oil production averaged 8.29 million barrels per day from 1973 to 2026, with 10.1 million barrels per day produced prior to the Strait of Hormuz blockade.
OilPrice attributes Iraq’s newer push to Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi’s announcement that Iraq plans to raise oil production to between 8 million and 10 million barrels per day within six years. The article says Iraq has enough reserves to support the target, citing EIA figures of 145 billion barrels of proved crude oil reserves, described as nearly 18% of the Middle East total and around 9% of the global total.
The commentary also adds that it sees the plan as potentially achievable for several reasons, including reserve depth and how development is handled, while noting Iraq previously promised production increases that did not materialize.
The text states Iraq’s Oil Ministry estimates undiscovered resources at about 215 billion barrels, using figures analyzed in the author’s book on global oil markets, but it does not provide additional milestones beyond the six year output goal.
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