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UK FCA discusses easing retail access ban on financial prediction markets
The FCA is weighing a potential policy shift as UK consumers increasingly use overseas platforms, which face separate FCA and Gambling Commission licensing hurdles.
The UK’s Financial Conduct Authority is reportedly in talks with trading platforms about possibly lifting its 2019 ban that prevents retail investors from accessing financial prediction markets, as British users increasingly turn to overseas venues like Kalshi and Polymarket, according to CoinDesk citing a report by The Times.
The regulator still treats contracts tied to financial and certain weather events as binary options, a framework that has kept sales to retail customers prohibited since 2019. Moving forward would require navigating two licensing hurdles, with FCA permission needed for financial contracts and a Gambling Commission license for other types of events.
CoinDesk reports that the FCA’s latest perimeter report said the ban remains appropriate due to the speculative nature of the contracts and the risk of consumer harm, while also leaving the door open to additional work on access or clarifying how products should be regulated.
Demand for prediction markets has surged, with CoinDesk citing figures attributed to Bernstein, which projects total prediction market trading volume rising from $51.0 billion in 2025 to $240.0 billion this year. The outlets also note that Kalshi and Polymarket have been valued at $22.0 billion.