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Timber market research highlights forecast gaps for sawtimber prices
Forisk Research Quarterly projects for 2025 sawtimber and sawlog prices, but results came in as much as about 4% lower than those forecasts in the examples cited.
LandThink says timberland investing hinges on avoiding what it describes as “dumb” decisions, arguing that value can be eroded when plans fail to account for on the ground realities or how markets actually work. The piece ties that framework to the need for practical risk assessment and systematic research in timber and forest products allocations.
The article describes Forisk Research Quarterly as a recurring scorecard that includes an appendix with rolling forecasts by year versus actual results for housing, lumber, and regional timber and log prices. It says the approach is meant to test assumptions and sensitivities over time rather than rely on perfection.
As an example, the source cites a Q1 2021 forecast for 2025 South-wide pine sawtimber prices of $26.55 per ton, noting the actual 2025 price was $25.47 per ton, about 4% lower. It also cites a Q1 2021 forecast for 2025 Douglas-fir domestic #2 domestic sawlogs in Coastal Washington of $755.68 per MBF, with the actual 2025 price at $740.47 per MBF, about 2% lower.
LandThink concludes that understanding relative risk and fundamentals matters more than optimizing for ideal outcomes, and it frames the forecast comparisons as part of an ongoing process to improve models as conditions change.