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COCERAL cuts 2026 EU grain crop forecast on drought damage

The group projects EU-27 plus UK 2026 corn output at 48.6 million tonnes, down 4.1 million tonnes from its July forecast and below last year’s 56.5 million tonnes.

Reported · Written up by our desk · Agriculture

COCERAL has lowered its forecast for the EU-27 plus UK 2026 grain crop to 279 million tonnes, citing drought conditions that have reduced yields. The projection is 8 million tonnes lower than its July estimate and well below last year’s 307.4 million tonnes, World Grain reported.

Within that total, COCERAL expects wheat production, excluding durum, at 137.5 million tonnes. That is down from the prior forecast of 140.8 million tonnes and from 148.7 million tonnes in 2025, with the association saying northern France avoided major damage while the German and Polish wheat crops were hit more severely.

The outlook for corn was revised sharply lower after extremely hot and dry weather during pollination across western and central Europe, World Grain added. COCERAL cut its EU-27 plus UK 2026 corn forecast to 48.6 million tonnes from 52.7 million tonnes, which would be below last year’s 56.5 million tonnes.

COCERAL also forecast barley at 57.9 million tonnes, slightly above its previous estimate but still below last year, and projected the EU-27 plus UK 2026 rapeseed crop at 21.3 million tonnes. For wheat, the group said its estimates would imply the lowest corn output in more than 20 years for the projected corn crop, according to its comments.

Latest closeWheat $706.25 ▼1.5%|Corn $529.50 ▼1.4%

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