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Goldman: High oil prices may limit China crude import rebound in Q4

Goldman estimates China crude imports would rise only about 600,000 bpd in Q4 versus Q3 if Brent stays near $100 per barrel.

Reported · Written up by our desk · Energy

Goldman Sachs says China’s crude oil imports are unlikely to materially rise in the fourth quarter if oil prices remain high, which could reduce upward pressure on benchmark crude prices. The view is tied to expectations that China’s import growth will be limited even as buying has started to recover.

OilPrice, citing a Goldman note carried by Bloomberg, said China imported 8.93 million bpd of crude oil in August, up 6.2% from July and recovering from a decade low in June when imports were cut amid high prices and constrained Middle East supply. The August rise came as refiners turned to more non-Middle Eastern supply and increased overseas fuel shipments after export restrictions eased.

Goldman expects China’s crude oil imports to increase by only about 600,000 bpd in the fourth quarter compared with the third quarter if current price levels persist, with Brent hovering around $100 per barrel. The firm also pointed to the risk that escalations affecting Middle East crude production and export infrastructure, rather than higher China imports, would be the main driver of any further price moves.

Latest closeWTI crude $90.73 ▼4.1%|Brent $96.22 ▼3.0%

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