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Diesel export ban could lift US gasoline prices, Morgan Stanley says
Morgan Stanley projects lower refinery utilization within weeks under a diesel export ban, which could reduce gasoline output alongside already record-high gasoline prices.
Morgan Stanley analysts, according to a note carried by Bloomberg, say a potential Trump Administration ban on diesel exports could push U.S. gasoline prices higher. The analysts argued the move would force U.S. refiners to cut refinery utilization because diesel storage could fill within weeks.
They also said gasoline production would likely drop because gasoline and diesel are produced together during refining. With gasoline prices already at record-high levels for this time of year, they warned the impact could be counterintuitive, with diesel restrictions raising gasoline costs.
As of September 23, the national average regular retail gasoline price stood at $4.4744 per gallon, according to AAA data cited in the report. That compares with $4.10 a gallon a month earlier and $3.17 a gallon a year earlier.
The article also points to U.S. diesel pricing pressures, citing a $6.52 per gallon figure versus $3.69 in the same week of 2025. It adds that the White House denied an export ban was in the works after earlier hints from President Donald Trump and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.
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