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Bitcoin consolidates as rate-hike expectations fall

Implied odds of an October Fed hike slipped from about 50% to roughly 37%, helped by weaker JOLTS, consumer confidence, and Core PCE.

Reported · Written up by our desk · ETFs

Bitcoin consolidated this week as markets cut back expectations for another near-term rate hike, according to ETF Trends. The shift was tied to New York Fed President John Williams, who said September’s 25 basis point hike reduced the urgency for additional tightening and gave the Fed time to assess incoming data.

The implied probability of an October rate hike fell from roughly 75% to around 50%, then dropped further to about 37% after additional economic data. August JOLTS openings fell to 7.079 million, September consumer confidence slid to 81.9 from 88.6, and Core PCE came in below expectations at 0.2% month-on-month and 3.0% year-on-year.

The article also pointed to offsetting signals that remain more resilient. Second-quarter GDP was revised higher to 2.2% annualized, consumer spending rose 0.9% in August, and initial jobless claims fell to their lowest level since July.

ETF Trends said the move matters for bitcoin because lower expected policy rates reduce the relative attractiveness of cash and short-duration Treasuries.

Latest closeBitcoin $85,306.93 ▲0.6%

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