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Crude demand could have peaked in 2025 as biofuels gain share
FGE NexantECA said biofuels and natural gas liquids grew faster than crude from 2019 to 2025, while electric vehicles begin affecting diesel demand.
FGE NexantECA said global crude oil demand may have peaked in 2025, arguing the world will keep consuming more liquids but not necessarily more crude. LiveMint Markets, citing a report from Chairman Emeritus Fereidun Fesharaki and analyst Cuneyt Kazokoglu, said higher fuel needs are increasingly being met by biofuels and hydrocarbons derived from processing natural gas, such as ethane.
The assessment also points to the Hormuz crisis as a potential source of oil demand lost after this year, by disrupting flows through the Middle East chokepoint. LiveMint Markets added that the report draws a comparison to earlier oil shocks that led to lasting demand destruction.
FGE NexantECA said road transport, which accounts for about 45% of global oil demand, is central to substitution. It added that electric vehicles are eroding gasoline demand and beginning to hit diesel consumption, and noted biofuels and natural gas liquids combined have grown faster than crude from 2019 to 2025.
Latest closeWTI crude $91.10 ▲3.2%|Nat gas $3.136 ▼2.1%|Gasoline (RBOB) $3.156 ▼2.4%