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Argentina’s soybean output expected to dip in 2026-27 marketing year
USDA’s FAS projects planted area rising to 17.4 million hectares, but yields are forecast to edge down, with El Niño and fertilizer costs cited as key risks.
Argentina soybean production is expected to fall slightly in the 2026-27 marketing year to 49 million tonnes, according to a report by the US Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service, despite higher planned planting.
The FAS projects planted area of 17.4 million hectares versus 16.5 million hectares in 2025-26, but it expects yields to decline slightly. It points to historically high yields in many regions, particularly for second-crop soybeans, which make the near-term comparison challenging.
The outlook could change if weather patterns shift as El Niño develops. The FAS said yields are expected to return to average under normal conditions, but an El Niño that brings above-average precipitation to Argentina could push yields higher, and some in the industry expect a stronger “super El Niño” scenario.
Fertilizer prices are also flagged as a driver of final planting decisions. The FAS noted fertilizer prices spiked by more than $200 per tonne in Argentina after a conflict in Iran lifted global fertilizer costs, then eased back to February levels, but renewed increases at planting could steer more producers toward soy rather than corn given soy’s lower fertilizer requirements. The agency also projected Argentina’s 2025-26 soybean crop at 50 million tonnes, which would match the prior year but remain well below the 55.3-million-tonne record from 2018-19.
Latest closeCorn $451.75 ▲3.9%|Soybeans $1,180.00 ▼1.3%