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US wheat output set to hit lowest level in 50-plus years
Soybeans are forecast to be the main growth driver, with production up 4% and crush at a record as soybean oil demand supports biomass-based diesel.
Wheat production in the United States is forecast to fall to its lowest level in more than 50 years, while corn production is expected to slow from last year’s record, according to World Grain’s country outlook for 2026-27.
The report points to soybeans as the key bright spot, projecting soybean production to rise 4% and crush to reach a new record. It attributes the shift to improved profitability for soybean planting and to demand for soybean oil as a feedstock in biomass-based diesel production.
World Grain also highlights US policy support for biofuels. The US House of Representatives has passed legislation allowing year-round, nationwide sale of ethanol blends up to E15, which the Renewable Fuels Association described as providing certainty for fuel retailers, oil refiners, ethanol producers, and consumers.
On trade and input costs, the outlet says export demand is expected to strengthen, with soybean exports projected to increase by 2.72 million tonnes and the US share of global soybean trade at 23%, citing USDA’s Oil Crops Outlook. It adds that supply and prices are being pressured by higher fuel and fertilizer costs linked to restricted movement through the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for energy products and crop inputs, and notes a survey from the American Farm Bureau Federation showing 70% of respondents unable to afford all the fertilizer they need.
Latest closeWheat $635.25 ▲0.5%|Corn $463.00 ▲5.7%|Soybeans $1,193.50 ▼0.2%