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Bitcoin could test $38,000 in October amid supply-driven slump
A NYDIG report says Bitcoin is down nearly 30% year to date and attributes the current weakness to supply mechanics rather than broader risk sentiment.
Bitcoin could fall to about $38,000 by October, according to a report cited by Bitcoin Magazine that points to historical drawdown patterns.
The report by NYDIG argues Bitcoin’s current slump is being driven by supply mechanics instead of risk sentiment, noting that the token has recently diverged from so-called risk-on assets. It says AI-related equities have risen while crypto has struggled.
Bitcoin Magazine adds that Bitcoin was priced at $64,809 recently, down nearly 30% year to date, and far below its October all-time high of $126,080.
NYDIG also highlights shifting correlations, including an increase in Bitcoin’s rolling correlation with gold during 2026’s second quarter as both assets experienced sell-offs, and it describes a potential cycle low near $38,000 to $39,000 if Bitcoin follows patterns seen in prior reset years.
Latest closeGold $4,058.20 ▲1.5%|Bitcoin $64,849.95 ▼0.2%