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Glassnode says Bitcoin realized losses hint at 2026 bear-market bottom

Glassnode points to realized losses among 1 to 2 year holders, with the 30-day realized loss total recently passing $75 million before reversing.

Reported · Written up by our desk · Market Structure

Cointelegraph reports that onchain analytics platform Glassnode says Bitcoin realized losses are starting to form a pattern that has previously appeared near bear-market bottoms. In a Friday post, Glassnode’s pseudonymous analyst Cryptovizart highlighted “Realized Loss volume” among 1 to 2 year holders as a key timing metric for when the heaviest distribution phase may be nearing an end.

The analysis focuses on coins that last moved onchain at a loss between July 2024 and July 2025, a period when BTC/USD rose from about $62,800 to roughly $107,000 and left most investors underwater on their allocations. Cointelegraph notes that the realized-loss tally on a 30-day rolling basis recently passed $75 million before beginning to reverse, which Cryptovizart said has often been an early signal that the main selloff phase is behind the market.

Cointelegraph also says Glassnode is watching additional onchain measures, including two-month stochastic RSI that can coincide with reversal conditions, and speculators’ aggregate cost basis identified as a bulls’ next resistance hurdle around $69,000. The report frames this $69,000 area as a new BTC price battleground as market participants monitor the next potential macro floor.

Latest closeBitcoin $63,999.90 ▼1.1%

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